The past is a guide to the future!

How good are climate models? Might they be missing nonlinear behaviour that typifies the real world? Can the climate of the past guide us in what to expect in future? These and other questions are discussed in a piece of research commissioned by the Environmental Research Group for the UK actuarial profession. Making use of money made available by the Research Steering Committee Dr Stephan Harrison has produced a discussion note on these topics for the profession.

Here is the full paper.

Some further thoughts from Stephan....